Om republikanerna vinner kontroll över kongressen under mellanårsperioden i november, förväntar sig personer som noga följer finanstekniken press på tillsynsmyndigheter att driva kryptovänliga regler över mållinjen.

Lagstiftare från båda parter har slagit sig samman om lagstiftning som skulle reglera branschen efter ett kaotiskt år med ett stablecoin-misslyckande och konkurser för kryptolåneföretag. Bitcoin, en av de mest populära kryptovalutorna, har tappat över 60 procent av sitt värde sedan november 2021.

Republikanerna har dock varit särskilt nitiska i att vilja ha mer tydligt definierade trafikregler från tillsynsmyndigheter. Sen. Patrick J. Toomey, R-Pennsylvania, till exempel, har tukdat tillsynsmyndigheter för att de inte ger mer klarhet.

Och republikaner är också emot att regeringen fyller en roll som de ser som den privata sektorns domän, ett exempel är en digital centralbanksvaluta utgiven av Federal Reserve.

Lee Reiners, policychef vid Duke Financial Economics Center i North Carolina, sa att republikanerna har samlats kring en uppfattning att Fed inte behöver skapa sin egen digitala valuta eftersom den skulle konkurrera med stabila mynt som redan finns på marknaden.

"Skulle det chockera mig om de införde ett lagförslag som skulle förbjuda Federal Reserve att ge ut en centralbanks digital valuta eller digital dollar?" sa Reiners i en intervju. "Jag skulle inte bli chockad."

Republikaner är gynnade att vinna kammaren, men kampen om senaten är mindre säker. Inside Elections med Nathan L. Gonzales rapporterar att GOP:s marginaler har minskat när valet närmar sig.

Även i en delad kongress tror vissa dock att det är troligt att agera på krypto.

"Jag tror, ​​oavsett vad som händer med valet i november, att kongressen kommer att fortsätta att ha en aptit att agera på lagstiftning relaterade till kryptovalutor och stablecoins", säger Kristin Smith, verkställande direktör på Blockchain Association, i en intervju. Stablecoins är digitala tokens vars värde är knutet till en tillgång som dollarn.

Tvåpartisräkningar har cirkulerat. Ett lagförslag, som lades fram i augusti av Senatens jordbruksordförande Debbie Stabenow, D-Michigan, och medsponsrat av rankade medlemmen John Boozman, R-Arkansas, skulle ge Commodity Futures Trading Commission befogenhet att reglera några av de största digitala råvarorna, inklusive bitcoin.

En liknande, som introducerades i juli av sponsor sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming, och medsponsrad av senator Kirsten Gillibrand, D-New York, skulle sätta CFTC som bästa kryptoregulator, men inkluderar ett brett utbud av andra kryptor. bestämmelser och har även skattekonsekvenser.

Ännu mer lagstiftning förväntas från Maxine Waters, D-Kalifornien, ordförande för House Financial Services Committee, och Patrick T. McHenry från North Carolina, den rankade medlemmen och sannolikt ordförande för panelen om republikaner tar parlamentet.

"He is very passionate about these issues," Smith said of McHenry. "So I think he may be more of a driving force than if the Democrats (keep) control." McHenry would work to get something done quickly, Smith added.

A central bank digital currency, a digital form of money that would be issued and backed by the Fed, however, is an issue that could be more partisan, Smith said.

Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minnesota, chair of the Blockchain Caucus, introduced a bill in January that would ban the central bank from issuing a CBDC directly to individuals.

Banks or fintech?

Agencies are also moving forward on potential new rules.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is considering rules for customer data sharing, Reiners noted. A proposal that would give bank customers control over their data would affect the relationship between traditional financial accounts and third-party apps such as Venmo.

Banks mostly are not keen on being required to share their customers' data, in part because it is extremely valuable, Reiners said. That could mean a choice for Republicans on whom they support most—banks or the fintech industry, he said.

"Historically Republicans have been broadly supportive of the banking industry, so this would kind of pit two of their constituencies against one another," he said.

Republicans could also smooth the path for what some call "rent-a-charter" arrangements, in which fintech companies partner with banks to make loans. If a nonbank fintech lending platform is underwriting loans, it is subject to state-by-state lender licensing requirements and also state-by-state interest rate and fee restrictions, according to a post by Reiners and Joseph Caputo for the Duke Financial Economics Center.

Many fintech lenders are already partnering with banks to avoid state restrictions by structuring their arrangements with banks so that the fintech credit platform markets to potential borrowers and the bank underwrites the loan, they said.

Democrats view it as a new form of payday lending, while Republicans view it as competition that benefits consumers by giving them more choice, Reiners said.

Late in former President Donald Trump's administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the "true lender" rule determining that a bank, and not the fintech company, is making the loan, therefore allowing such arrangements. Many on the left worried the rule would allow predatory interest rates for low-income consumers, Reiners said.

Congress used the Congressional Review Act to overturn the rule in June 2021.

At the time, President Joe Biden said "loan sharks and online lenders" had figured out how to get around interest rate caps. "These are so called 'rent-a-bank' schemes," Biden said. "And they allow lenders to prey on veterans, seniors, and other unsuspecting borrowers … trapping them into a cycle of debt."

Republicans want to see that true-lender rule come back.

"That would be a pressure applied directly to the OCC and the FDIC [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation]," Reiners said.

A Republican Congress also would mean increased oversight on regulators led by Biden appointees, said Aaron Klein, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

"Regulators have significant, independent authority, and determined regulators can usually move forward even in the face of congressional opposition," Klein said.

Klein said he expected the election impact on fintech regulation to be minimal.

"Perhaps the biggest change would be if Republicans took the Senate and slowed the nomination process for new appointees," Klein said.

Nicole Valentine, fintech director of the Center for Financial Markets at the Milken Institute, said she anticipates some momentum in legislation and hearings in the next term.

"The United States is a market leader, and it would be great to see their continuation of leadership in this era of fintech and crypto," Valentine said. + Utforska vidare

Fintech experts divided on form for US central digital currency

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