Karl Schwartz önskar att han helt enkelt jagade äran på snöskoterracingbanan. Istället, de senaste åren, han har tvingats jaga allt svårare kallt väder.

Schwartz, av Freeland, är ordförande för Midwest International Racing Association, en racingbana för snöskoter som främst har varit verksam i Michigan i mer än 40 år. Deras helgtävlingar drar cirka 100 lag, hundratals racers och besättningsmedlemmar, och tusentals fler fans, vanligtvis som en del av ett lokalsamhälles vinterfestival.

Men varje år, som Michigans klimatförändringar, det blir svårare att göra.

"Vi tävlar på is, inte snö, " sa han. "Vi behöver inte snö - vi behöver kalla temperaturer."

Racers tävlar ofta på nöjesbanor, översvämmade med hundratusentals liter vatten för att försöka bygga en bas av frusen mark som åkarnas maskiner kommer att tugga upp under en tävlingshelg. De behöver cirka två veckors temperaturer i tonåren för att skapa de rätta förhållandena. Med ökande frekvens, som börjar bli nästan omöjligt att hitta, sa Schwartz.

"Trots våra bästa ansträngningar för att flytta runt vår kalender, och vattna dessa racerbanor veckor i förväg, vi måste fortfarande flytta datum, ställ in datum och tävla under mindre än perfekta förhållanden på grund av det varma vädret, " han sa.

"Detta har varit ett konsekvent problem för oss, speciellt de senaste åren. Det har pågått längre än så, men speciellt de senaste fem åren, det har verkligen varit, riktigt problematiskt."

Racerförbundets styrelse har haft möten de senaste åren för att prata om vad den kan göra, inklusive att flytta fler lopp längre norrut.

"(Men) vi är redan på Sault Ste. Marie, "på den östra övre halvön vid den kanadensiska gränsen, sa Schwartz. "Två lopp där, och de kan inte ens bli tillräckligt kalla. Vårt lopp på Ironwood (i den bortre västra delen av U.P.) hade problem, för.

"När du inte kan få is vid den kanadensiska gränsen, hur mycket längre norrut kan du gå?"

Michigan är kall, snöiga vintrar, och ett sätt att leva kring dem, störs av klimatförändringarna. Och för vinterfestivaler som är beroende av kyla, snö och is – och samhällen som är beroende av det ekonomiska uppsving i en långsam tid som dessa festivaler ger – det orsakar en del svårigheter att anpassa sig, och till och med att överleva.

De stora sjöarna har sett en större ökning av årliga medeltemperaturer än resten av det kontinentala USA och "vintrarna blir varmare snabbare än somrarna, sa Richard Rood, professor i klimat- och rymdvetenskap och teknik vid University of Michigan.

"Planeten överlag värms upp, men stater som Wisconsin, Michigan och Illinois blir varmare, snabbare, sa Don Wuebbles, professor vid institutionen för atmosfäriska vetenskaper vid University of Illinois.

Snöfallet i Great Lakes Basin minskade med 2,25 % från 1984 till 2013 jämfört med 1954 till 1983. Forskare räknar med att snöfallet kan minska med nästan 48 % till 2080 enligt ett business-as-usual-scenario utan minskade mänskliga koldioxidutsläpp. Men även under ett mer optimistiskt scenario, där utsläppen av växthusgaser minskas avsevärt, vinterns snöfall i Great Lakes Basin förväntas minska med mer än 28 % till 2080.

Antalet dagar då den låga temperaturen sjunker under fryspunkten, 32 grader Fahrenheit, i området kring de stora sjöarna beräknas av forskare minska med mer än en månad per år i scenariot med högre utsläpp, och med tre veckor i scenariot med lägre utsläpp. Och dagar då den höga temperaturen håller sig under fryspunkten – den typ av konsekvent kalla vinterdagar som behövs för aktiviteter som snöskoter, isfiske, längdskidåkning och mer — beräknas minska med 56 dagar om året under högre koldioxidutsläpp, och med 31 dagar under lägre utsläpp.

Michigan vintrar, som generationer har känt dem och förlitat sig på dem, verkar gå mot sitt slut. Köldknäppar och kraftig sjöeffektssnö kommer fortfarande att hända, men sker i mindre och mindre frekventa skurar med tiden.

"Medan det fortfarande snöar mycket i vissa regioner, hur den beter sig när den väl är på marken är ganska annorlunda, " sa Rood. "Det varar inte så länge, och det blir slarvigt när regnet faller på den.

"Det behöver inte vara så mycket varmare att du får sjöeffektsregn snarare än sjöeffektssnö."

I slutet av århundradet, under ett scenario med fortsatt höga koldioxidutsläpp, forskare tror att Michigans årliga medeltemperatur kan öka med 9 eller 10 grader Fahrenheit, sa Wuebbles.

"Det är mycket, mycket olika klimat, " sa han. "Som jämförelse, den sista istiden, som förde hit 2 mil tjock is, temperaturen var 11 grader kallare än idag."

Vinterfesten är inställd — igen

Michigans vinterfestivaler står inför en annan utmaning i år - COVID-19-pandemin. Men under de senaste åren, störningar har kommit från en brist på traditionella vinterförhållanden.

Caro vinterfest, i tumregionen på Michigan's Lower Peninsula, inställda evenemang för andra vintern i rad i januari. Festivalen är uppbyggd kring Midwest International Racing Associations skotertävlingar.

"The past few years, the temperatures have not cooperated whatsoever before the event, " said Kris Reinelt, Caro Winter Fest board president.

Festival staff usually begin flooding the Tuscola County Fairgrounds to build ice layers for the snowmobile racing track after the holidays, in preparation for the Winter Fest races, usually held around the third weekend of January.

"We need at least a week of consistent, low temperatures, " Reinelt said. "We would be able to build up 1 or 2 inches of ice a night, but then in the daytime, it would warm up and take it away.

"We have to pay for the water, we have to pay for the time. It doesn't become cost-effective to fight that battle."

The lost festivals over back-to-back years, and threatened again in 2021 by the coronavirus, cause a painful economic hit for the community.

"The racing teams bring in 300 people just among the racers, their families and friends who follow them, " Reinelt said. "In Caro, we draw another 3, 000 personer. Those are 3, 300 people who may never come to Caro, and they are coming in the middle of winter, which is a slow time. That's so helpful to the hotels, restauranger, grocery stores."

At Tip-Up Town U.S., Michigan's longest-running winter festival, established in 1953 and built around ice fishing on Houghton Lake, nearly a dozen people fell through the ice last January, their snowmobiles, four-wheelers and other vehicles breaking through thin ice that was open water less than a week earlier.

The Kalkaska Winterfest, in northern Lower Michigan, features one of the Midwest's largest dog-sledding sprint races, going back to 1965—longer-running than the famed Iditarod in Alaska.

Under 2017, the races scheduled for January were postponed until the first week of March because of a lack of wintry conditions. When it was more of the same in March, the races were canceled.

Under 2018, the races were postponed in January, then canceled in February. The next year, the January dates were again moved to February, when the latter half of the racing schedule that weekend was canceled because "everything had just melted, " said Shannon Moore, a race marshal and board secretary for the Winterfest.

"That was something I'd never seen at a dog race, ever, " Hon sa.

At the local hotel sponsoring the event and hosting race teams and their families, the All Season Resort, "they go from being completely booked to 5% occupancy when we cancel, " sa Moore.

Many of the dog-sledding teams come from out of state, as much as 10 hours away, and bring kennels and trucks, crews and families. Though 2020's races went off without a hitch in mid-February, the more races that get postponed, canceled or happen in poor conditions, the more worry that teams won't bother coming, sa Moore.

"I think we'll have to keep aiming for February and hoping we get lucky, " she said. "When we do it later in March, that's not going to work. And the January dates haven't been working, either."

Snowmobile sales plummet 70%

Carl Gerstacker was a snowmobiling fanatic.

"From the mid-'90s until about '05-'06, there was a solid 10 years where we put on just a ton of miles and had fun with it, " han sa.

But the pastime got more expensive. And the right conditions became harder to find.

"The winters are hit-or-miss now, " he said. "We've had some really good winters, where the guys are up there (in northern Michigan) feasting on perfect conditions. But when you're making payments on a $15, 000 machine, you need some consistency."

Gerstacker and his friends were "weekend warriors"—"get off work a little early on Friday, head north, spend the weekend riding the trails, head back home Sunday and go to work on Monday." But needing to go ever farther north to find the best, most consistent riding became a time-consuming, costly effort.

"If you're chasing snow into the U.P., that's not an option anymore, " the Brighton-area resident said. "You're talking eight to 10 hours of driving to get up into the good snow and the best trails."

Gerstacker in recent years has changed out the sleds for a side-by-side, a four-wheeled recreational vehicle featuring two rows of seating that his wife and two children can enjoy with him.

"There's always dirt, there's not always snow, " he said. "I'm watching my buddies making payments on these (snowmobiles), and they are going to ride two months this year. And these quick little shots Up North are expensive, för.

"I don't look back. I enjoy the side-by-side more than I ever did snowmobiling."

Gerstacker isn't alone in leaving snowmobiles behind. Snowmobile sales in the U.S. are down 70% from their 1997 peak, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association, a Haslett-based trade organization representing North America's four major snowmobile manufacturers:Arctic Cat; Ski-Doo/Bombardier; Polaris and Yamaha.

The Michigan Snowmobile Association, a Wyoming, Michigan-based nonprofit organization promoting and preserving the sport, also saw the changing reality. I maj 2019, its board—over the protests of some sledding die-hards—voted to become the Michigan Snowmobile and ORV Association, adding off-road vehicles under its canopy.

"They are motorized, we are motorized, and very often we have the same goals and objectives, " such as promoting trail access, said Karen Middendorp, the association's executive director.

Changing weather is unquestionably a factor in snowmobiling's decline, Hon sa.

"You can't ride every weekend, especially for the down-staters, " she said. "There's not enough snow."

Snowmobiling exploded in popularity in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, bringing $321 million in sales, $187 million in income, and more than 6, 000 jobs to Michigan's economy, according to a 1998 Michigan State University study. It was primarily driven by baby boomers who had reached a more comfortable point in their lives and had the disposable income to afford, and the time to enjoy, snowmobiling. But now that population cohort is waning in the sport, said Edward Klim, executive director of the snowmobile manufacturers association.

"We have started to really look at millennials and Generation X. Are they recreating in the snow? Are they riding snowmobiles?" han sa. "How does the next generation want to recreate? Some people will buy an ATV or UTV (utility terrain vehicle) and use it nine or 10 months a year."

It's a reality snowmobile dealers have been forced to confront:change or die.

"The writing was on the wall 10-plus years ago, " said Mike Nord, owner of Nord-Ride Motorsports in Mount Morris Township.

Around 2000, there were as many as 10 snowmobile dealerships in the greater Genesee County area. Nord's is now the only one left.

"There are two negative things against it:The cost of it now, and the weather, " he said. "The dealers had to look at it and say, 'This isn't a good business decision any longer.'"

Nord has survived by diversifying his vehicles, adding ATVs, side-by-sides and more. But even that comes with risks.

"If you look at some of the dealers that have fallen by the wayside, they fell into this trap, " he said. "You have to be able to accommodate (these diverse recreational vehicles), so you have to get bigger on your buildings, and that means bigger on your overheads. You finance that to increase the size of your building, och helt plötsligt, we have an economic downturn. There is no Plan B."

I kontrast, ski resorts have stayed relatively unscathed by warming weather because of their ability to make snow, said Amy Reents, executive director of the Midwest Ski Areas Association based in Hastings, Minnesota, a nonprofit trade group promoting skiing and ski resort interests in Michigan and surrounding states.

"We're not growing by leaps and bounds, but there haven't been any great fall-offs, " Hon sa.

During a few days of cold weather, a ski resort can lay down several feet of manufactured snow, Hon sa. It's then packed and groomed and provides a base with its own refrigeration.

"They can withstand several days in the 40s—it will do much better than the snow in your front yard, " Reents said.

"The changes in snow-making technology over the years have made it so much easier to make snow in warmer temperatures. If anything has changed for the ski industry, it's that (resorts) have decided that capital investing in snow-making technology is hugely important."

Adaptation is essential

Adaptation and diversification will become increasingly essential for Michigan's winter festivals to continue and thrive. Many have already figured that out.

From long-ago years where many of Tip-Up Town U.S.'s events were held on the thick ice of Houghton Lake, the festival now largely operates under large tents on the shore, featuring family fun, mat, music and merchants, said Jay Jacobs, executive director of the Houghton Lake Chamber of Commerce and a lead organizer of the festival.

Tip-Up Town typically draws about 10, 000 visitors over its two weekends of events at the end of January.

"It's very essential to us, " he said. "We rely on tourism—we don't have an industrial park; Houghton Lake doesn't have a defined downtown, ett sjukhus, a university. These two weekends in the winter are a nice little shot in the arm for the community."

But even with diverse events not reliant on snow, ice or cold, a psychological deterrent can keep potential festival-goers home when it's warm out.

"It does affect the number of people who show up, " said Jacobs. "We've had a few years where it's been rainy, and people just don't hang around."

The Caro Winter Fest is so intricately tied to snowmobile races, it can't happen without them right now, Reinelt said. She wants to ask residents how they feel about changing that, in the wake of the recent, weather-related cancelations.

"I want to do polls on our Facebook:Would you come out in the middle of winter to watch a chainsaw ice competition, a warming tent with live entertainment, and a beer and wine bar?" she said.

A larger adaptation is needed, Rood said:a reduction in human-caused carbon emissions that are fueling climate change.

"These big changes should be major motivators to take on that carbon dioxide reduction problem, " han sa.

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